The ability to predict likely prognosis and infectiousness for patients with COVID-19 would aid patient management decisions. Diagnosis is usually via real-time PCR and it is unclear whether the semi-quantitative capability of this method, determining viral load through cycle threshold (Ct) values, can be leveraged.
We aim to review available knowledge on correlations between SARS-COV-2 Ct values and patient- or healthcare-related outcomes to determine whether Ct values provide useful clinical information.
A PubMed search was conducted on 1st June 2020 based on a search strategy of (Ct value OR viral load) AND SARS-CoV-2. Data was extracted from studies reporting on the presence or absence of an association between Ct values, or viral loads determined via Ct value, and clinical outcomes.
Data from 18 studies were relevant for inclusion. One study reported on the correlation between Ct values and mortality and one study reported on the correlation between Ct values and progression to severe disease; both reported a significant association (p < 0.001 and p = 0.008, respectively). Fourteen studies reported on the correlation between Ct value or viral loads determined via Ct value and disease severity and an association was observed in 8 (57%) studies. Studies reporting on the correlation of viral load with biochemical and haematological markers showed an association with at least one marker, including increased lactate dehydrogenase (n = 4), decreased lymphocytes (n = 3) and increased high-sensitivity troponin I (n = 2). Two studies reporting on the correlation with infectivity showed that lower Ct values were associated with higher viral culture positivity.
Data suggest that lower Ct values may be associated with worse outcomes, and that Ct values may be useful in predicting the clinical course and prognosis of patients with COVID-19; however, further studies are warranted to confirm clinical value.